As part of Castor Vali’s mission, the Security Information Service (SIS) delivers intelligence-led security reporting to provide clients with critical insights for navigating complex security environments. The Kenya-based team compiles a range of reports, including the Kenya Monthly Report, which presents a detailed assessment of the national security landscape.
It highlights key trends in terrorism, general crime, and intercommunal violence, mapped and analysed to support client operations.
The following are the primary trends identified in the June 2025 report:
- Unrest Surges One Year After Anti-Finance Bill Protests: June witnessed a significant rise in civil unrest incidents, largely associated with nationwide demonstrations commemorating the first anniversary of the 25 June anti-finance bill protests. Compared to May, the number of unrest-related events increased by 50%.
- Robbery and Theft Rise Amid June Demonstrations: Robbery and theft cases rose by 43% compared to the previous month. Notably, over 64% of these incidents involved break-ins targeting commercial and residential premises. Criminals exploited the disorder during the 12, 17, and 25 June unrest to break into businesses in key towns affected by the demonstrations.
- Bank Clients Targeted in Sophisticated Street Scams: There was a rise in cases where criminals, posing as traffic police officers, targeted individuals shortly after withdrawing large sums of money from banks.
- Gang Activity Escalates in Nakuru Region: In Nakuru and the surrounding areas, gang-related violence remained prevalent. One such incident involved the fatal shooting of a police officer on patrol in the Free Area of Nakuru town by suspected gang members.
- Al-Shabaab Remains Active Along Somalia Border Despite Decline in Attacks: Since the start of 2025, Castor Vali has recorded 39 terrorism-related incidents, all confined to three of the four counties bordering Somalia. March recorded the highest number of attacks (nine), followed by January, February, and April with eight each. May and June were relatively calm, with four and two incidents, respectively. Although the number of reported attacks declined in June, al-Shabaab’s operational presence and capabilities in the northeastern region remain intact.
Short-Term Outlook: Unrest and Crime to Remain Elevated
The short to medium term risk of unrest remains high, primarily driven by youth groups and human rights organisations. Political elites continue to influence public discourse, especially in the lead-up to the 2027 general elections, as the pressure mounts on the government to address divergent public opinion. Incidents of crime, including burglaries, violent robberies, assaults, and gang activity, are likely to remain high, particularly during protest periods, placing further strain on an already overstretched police service. In such a volatile environment, organisations need to have contingency plans informed by real-time intelligence.
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