Nigeria is entering a period of increased political mobilisation ahead of the Presidential and National Assembly elections in January 2027, followed by Governorship and State House elections in February.
Based on previous election cycles, Castor Vali assesses that political violence and election-related unrest are likely to increase closer to polling, with an uptick expected from November and December.
Castor Vali’s monitoring has already recorded an increase in election-related violence in 2026 compared with the equivalent period ahead of the 2023 elections, with activity concentrated in particular states rather than evenly distributed across the country.
What could the election period mean for your operations?
Conditions are likely to vary considerably between locations and change as the election period develops. Wider security, economic and environmental pressures could also compound disruption.
Organisations should be considering:
- Where are our people and operations most exposed?
- Are our crisis and business continuity arrangements ready for potential disruption?
- Can we maintain visibility of personnel and adapt travel arrangements as conditions change?
- Do decision-makers have access to timely intelligence about the locations that matter to us?
Download the Nigeria Election Preparedness Guide
Castor Vali has developed a Nigeria Election Preparedness Guide to help organisations prepare for the months ahead. Drawing on analysis from our Risk Intelligence team and our operational experience in Nigeria, the guide provides:
- an overview of the factors shaping the election environment,
- key dates to plan around
- where risks could be elevated
- practical considerations to help organisations review their existing arrangements across intelligence, travel risk management, operational preparedness and crisis response.
Talk to our team
If you would like to discuss the risks most relevant to your people and operations, contact our team at info@castorvali.com or complete the form below:
